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Toronto Maple Leafs
JustinCarbonneau
RWAge: 19185 CM92 KGCAN CAN
75PNHLe
Justin Carbonneau
NHLNHL Draft2025, STL (19th overall)1st round, 19th pick
THLTHL Draft2025, BUF (18th overall)1st round, 18th pick

Projected potential

Bio

High-octane forward with dynamic skill and a lethal shot

PNHLe

Projected potential: 75 · 1st Line Potential2025-26 · QMJHL · Blainville-Boisbriand Armada

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
6.5
65% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
9.0
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Carbonneau took a massive step from 2023-24 to 2024-25 to cement himself as a first-round talent. He is one of the most skilled forwards in this class and showcased that in the 46-goal, 89-point campaign for Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He plays with a lot of pace and the skill to back up his intensity. His hands are crafty, and he combines excellent vision with being a dangerous scoring threat with the puck on his stick. Defenders cannot consistently predict Carbonneau’s next move. He also plays an underrated physical game. He is not afraid of body contact and, while not necessarily a bruiser, he will retrieve and protect pucks at any cost. Carbonneau signed his three-year entry-level contract on September 10, 2025 and should slot nicely into the Blues’ forward prospect pool and be a real difference maker.

Selected at nineteenth overall, Justin Carbonneau is now a member of the St Louis Blues.

Early this draft season, Carbonneau was typically slotted in the early teens, but has stagnated a bit as of late. The 6-1 winger from the QMJHL has some electrifying moments 1-on-1, revealing a high offensive ceiling. He drives play in transition with great underlying metrics and has emerged as one of his league’s most lethal shooters and prolific goal scorers. Carbonneau is gritty and determined to make an impact on both ends of the ice. However, his hockey IQ and top end speed have raised concerns for his floor. At the NHL level, he projects as a middle 6 scoring winger.

Final Rankings – Justin Carbonneau was one of the more exciting players to watch, combining some of the best hands in the draft with goal scoring and physicality. He has a great frame and had the ability to take over games this year. Carbonneau will need maturation in his approach, find a role, and playing more completely.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2018-19RegularQC Int PWPointe-Lévy Corsaires20000
2019-20RegularQBAAAPointe-Lévy Corsaires Bantam AAA22941310
2021-22RegularQM18AAALévis Chevaliers40832402132
2021-22PlayoffsQM18AAALévis Chevaliers1432504
2022-23RegularQM18AAALévis Chevaliers23151429438
2022-23RegularWHC-17Canada White U1760112
2022-23RegularQMJHLRouyn-Noranda Huskies202210
2022-23RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada3051318-1610
2022-23PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada4022-22
2023-24RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada68312859-132
2023-24PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada7336-36
2024-25RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada62464389361
2024-25RegularProspects ChallengeTeam CHL202222
2024-25PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada5303012
2025-26RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada605129803164
2025-26PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada1791120914
2025-26PlayoffsAHLSpringfield Thunderbirds300002