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Carolina Hurricanes
IlyaNabokov
GAge: 23183 CM81 KGRUS RUS
Ilya Nabokov
NHLNHL Draft2024, COL (38th overall)2nd round, 6th pick
THLTHL Draft2024, CAR (22nd overall)1st round, 22nd pick

Projected potential

Bio

A positionally-sound and controlled netminder who put up excellent results in a full-time KHL role at 20 years of age.

PNHLe

PNHLe data is not available for this prospect yet.

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
8.0
80% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
8.0
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Nabokov has slowed down for the first time in years, starting the KHL season with a .889 SV% through 10 games. The team in front of him is in first place in the league and the backup netminder is outpacing him, meaning that after a 49-start season in 2024-25 he is at risk of becoming a “1A” this year rather than a workhorse. His track record has earned him ample runway to figure this out before fantasy owners get concerned, but if he is only viable as a starter and not as a backup or tandem partner, his ability to break into North American pro in the coming years will be affected.

Nabokov has signed a two-year ELC with the Avs. Rumours suggest he will be loaned back to the KHL and cross the pond next spring after the 2025-26 KHL season has completed, but may participate in some North American summer prospect camps. Whenever he does join the team he will have an AHL tandem role waiting for him, possibly more depending on which RFAs are retained this summer. Despite being a top goaltending prospect who just logged another seriously impressive KHL campaign, expect the Avs to take things slow with Nabokov. Goalie prospects take time and pro seasoning – just look around the league at names like Askarov and Wallstedt.

Roughly one month into the KHL season, the 21-year-old has been Metallurg’s undisputed starter, playing 15 of 21 games and rocking a 0.920 SV% with 2 shutouts so far. This ranks 7th in the KHL, which isn’t surprising from the reigning KHL playoffs MVP whose stock has been steeply rising of late. His contract is up after this season so there is a chance he comes to North America following his current campaign. As long as he is getting a starter’s workload the organization may keep him in Russia until the right opportunity to play arises, but given the poor starts of the organization’s current netminders, they may be eager to sign Nabokov to an ELC as soon as they can.

It’s not often that you see a 21-year-old selected in the NHL draft, but it’s not often that you have the opportunity to draft a goaltender of Nabokov’s quality either. After a strong start to the KHL season, Nabokov has shown great in-season development, and his regular season and playoff statistics reflect that. He is an extremely strong skater, able to move effectively and quickly into positions. He consistently takes the correct lines, and is excellent at anticipating play and adjusting his depth based on the situation. His rebound control and tracking in and around the net may need some refining but by all measures this is an excellent professional goaltender available to be drafted. (April Rankings: #80)

June 2024 Nabokov was selected in the second round, 38th overall, by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2024 NHL Draft. Hadi Kalakeche



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPWLOTGAASV%SO
2018-19RegularRussia U17Metallurg Magnitogorsk U1720.824
2018-19RegularRussia U16Metallurg Magnitogorsk U16170.908
2019-20RegularMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk20002.260.9170
2019-20RegularRussia U17Metallurg Magnitogorsk U17300.938
2020-21RegularMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk33181022.060.9254
2020-21PlayoffsMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk52323.700.9051
2021-22RegularMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk3625812.060.9325
2021-22PlayoffsMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk84312.610.9210
2022-23RegularKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk10000.001.0000
2022-23RegularMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk3418971.930.9335
2022-23PlayoffsMHLStalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk41373.020.9030
2023-24RegularKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk43231332.150.9303
2023-24PlayoffsKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk2316631.820.9424
2024-25RegularKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk49231762.220.9233
2024-25PlayoffsKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk52362.130.9200
2025-26RegularKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk3822752.740.9011
2025-26PlayoffsKHLMetallurg Magnitogorsk72452.530.8920