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Buffalo Sabres
GavinMcCarthy
DAge: 21188 CM88 KGUSA USA
74PNHLe
Gavin McCarthy
NHLNHL Draft2023, BUF (86th overall)3rd round, 22nd pick
THLTHL Draft2023, BUF (85th overall)3rd round, 21st pick

Projected potential

Bio

A physical two-way defenseman who is not afraid to lay a big hit. Has the potential to become a second-pairing defenseman but will lack offense.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 74 · 1st Line Potential2025-26 · NCAA · Boston Univ.

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
4.5
45% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
3.5
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

McCarthy signed a three-year entry level contract with the Buffalo Sabres on March 17. He scored 21 points in 36 games as the captain in a down year for the program (17-17-2 record) at Boston University. McCarthy will begin his development with the Rochester Americans in the AHL given Buffalo’s current charge towards contention in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The 20-year-old adds depth to a deep prospect pool in Buffalo.

McCarthy is the captain of the Boston University Terriers this year and is starting his third year off strong. At his core, he is a physical defensive defenseman, and his first two years at BU showcased that. Now considered a veteran on a young BU team, he balances his defensive responsibilities well while also starting to go directly north with the play more rather than hanging back. Often on the first defensive pairing, McCarthy is relied upon with his quick, creative thinking and board play to steer BU out of sticky situations. When the opportunity presents itself, he has a deceivingly good shot, netting two goals and two assists in 12 games.

McCarthy completed his sophomore NCAA season with Boston University, scoring three goals and adding 13 assists across 39 games. The mobile rearguard is not going to turn heads with his offense, instead he will ensure opponents keep their heads up with thunderous hits. He is a capable offensive threat, but not sound enough to project as a power play quarterback; he would be more aptly pencilled in fantasy rosters as a two-way defender with a decent offensive floor and peripherals.

The Buffalo Sabres drafted McCarthy in the third round (86th overall) in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.

The Terriers have had a shaky start, and McCarthy will have to continue maturing his play to ensure success for himself and the team. He was selected to the U.S. Collegiate Selects team for the Spengler Cup.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2017-18RegularQC Int PWBuffalo Jr. Sabres50002
2020-21Regular16U AAABuffalo Jr. Sabres 16U AAA183111422
2021-22RegularUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks5321113737
2021-22RegularUSA-S16Team Kelly530332
2021-22PlayoffsUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks901166
2022-23RegularUSA-S17Team Black40112
2022-23RegularHlinka Gretzky CupUSA U18401110
2022-23RegularUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks4281927-488
2022-23RegularWJAC-19USA U1910002
2023-24RegularNCAABoston Univ.381451241
2024-25RegularNCAABoston Univ.3931316351
2025-26RegularNCAABoston Univ.36417211240
2025-26RegularSpengler CupU.S. Collegiate Selects410110
2025-26RegularAHLRochester Americans500004