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Chicago Blackhawks
TheodorNiederbach
CAge: 24180 CM78 KGSWE SWE
36PNHLe
Theodor Niederbach
NHLNHL Draft2020, DET (51st overall)2nd round, 20th pick
THLTHL Draft2020, CHI (51st overall)2nd round, 19th pick

Projected potential

Bio

An extremely smart and skilled offensive player with top-six upside. A pass-first type player with high-end playmaking abilities. A natural center but there are some concerns about his ability to play down the middle at the pro level.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 362025-26 · SHL · Frolunda HC

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
3.0
30% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
5.0
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Niederbach signed a one-year contract extension with the Washington Capitals for the 2026-27 season. His deal carries an average annual value (AAV) of $1.02M. Niederbach totaled 32 points in 52 games for Frolunda HC (Liiga) in the 2025-26 season before adding two points in six postseason games. The 24-year-old center fits a systematic need in Washington, but he likely see some time in the minor leagues with the Hershey Bears (AHL) next fall.

Niederbach continues his development in the SHL, and is showing a growing offensive game as his confidence and deployment grow. In 2024-2025 he had his best showing in the Swedish league yet, with 10 goals and 23 assists in 51 games. At 24 years old, Niederbach has yet to come to North America to play in any league, and at this stage one wonders if he will at all. He could have potential were he to decide to cross the pond and sign with an NHL team, but it would feel like a wasted space on your minors to hold him until we have a clearer indication of if he even intends to. Pass for now.

The 2020 second round pick struggled this past season registering just one point in 17 games with Rögle in the SHL. His struggles led to a demotion and he ended up playing 31 games in HockeyAllsvenskan with Modo. That’s a step back for the 21-year-old prospect. He did however register seven goals and 11 assists in the regular season. The center then added four goals and eight assists in 17 games during the postseason as Modo won the HockeyAllsvenskan playoffs. I do like his hands and his hockey IQ. He also plays a strong two way game and doesn’t look to be a defensive liability. However, I do worry that his skating and lack of speed will hurt him when he comes over to North America. Niederbach will be back in the SHL next season as Modo was promoted and he’s under contract with the team until after the 2024-25 season. He is not worthy of a fantasy roster stash at this time as his game is still a work in progress.

After a handful of Swedish players became unavailable due to COVID protocols, Niederbach was thrust into a prominent role centering Sweden’s top forward line with Alexander Holtz and fellow Red Wings prospect, Lucas Raymond. The 2020 second-round pick did not look out of place but was perhaps tasked with too much as an 18-year-old playing the role of number one center. Niederbach finished the tournament with two goals over five contests and will look to improve upon those totals at next year’s WJC, where he should be better prepared to take on such an important role.

Niederbach began the season playing in Sweden’s J20 Nationell league and quickly proved he was worthy of a greater challenge after registering 35 points in 19 games. He was subsequently called up to Frolunda’s SHL squad, joining fellow Detroit prospects Lucas Raymond and Elder Soderblom. He has played sparingly and scored just one goal through his first 11 games at the men’s level but he is one of several Red Wings prospects that will have a chance to put his skills on display for Sweden at the World Juniors later this month.

Niederbach was drafted 51st overall by the Red Wings. Niederbach is expected to spend another two or three years in Sweden before crossing the pond.

Niederbach missed the entire 2018-2019 season with a knee injury but he managed to have a great 2019-2020 season despite that. He finished the season with 15 goals and 48 points in 40 SuperElit games. Most of his points were scored on the power play which is slightly concerning. But he hadn’t played hockey for a year, he had never played at the under-20 level before, and he spent most of the season playing on the third line on a stacked Frölunda J20 team, so it makes sense that his even strength production wasn’t as good. He definitely excels on the power play where there’s more room to maneuver and less physical battling. At even strength, Niederbach was a little soft and clearly lacked strength to battle consistently even at the junior level. But those are likely caused by the missed season and not a long-term concern. Niederbach is an extremely smart and skilled offensive player. He is a natural playmaker which is why he’s more effective at center, although he has played a bit on the wing as well. He has high-end passing skills and vision, and he’s very creative with the puck. He is also a very good skater, and he will get even better once he adds some power to his legs. All those tools give him top-six upside. Niederbach’s defensive game is a bit of a concern right now, especially if he wants to stay at center. But taking the missed season and his hockey smarts into consideration, there are reasons to believe it will get better. Niederbach is a bit of a project who will likely spend another year on the Frölunda junior team before pushing for a spot on their SHL roster. It might take him three or four years before he’s pushing for an NHL job. Because of the missed season, he is about one year behind in development compared to his peers. But Niederbach’s long-term potential is very high. He’s currently projected to be drafted in the second round but he could end up being one of the top 20 players from this draft class.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2014-15RegularWSI U13Sweden Selects U1393582
2015-16RegularWSI U14Sweden Selects U1480446
2016-17RegularTV-PuckenÅngermanland60000
2016-17RegularJ18 Div.1KB65 HK J18152320434
2016-17PlayoffsU16 Div.1KB65 HK U1643034
2017-18RegularTV-PuckenÅngermanland65166
2017-18RegularU16 ElitKB65 HK U162438357332
2017-18RegularU16 SMKB65 HK U16684128
2017-18PlayoffsU16 ElitKB65 HK U1634262
2019-20RegularJ18 ElitFrölunda HC J1877411327
2019-20RegularJ20 SuperElitFrölunda HC J2040153348212
2019-20RegularJ18 AllsvenskanFrölunda HC J187461094
2019-20PlayoffsJ18 AllsvenskanFrölunda HC J18122430
2020-21RegularJ20 NationellFrölunda HC J2019132235238
2020-21RegularSHLFrölunda HC20325-52
2020-21RegularWJC-20Sweden U20520220
2020-21RegularHockeyAllsvenskanMoDo Hockey1536906
2020-21PlayoffsSHLFrölunda HC7011-34
2021-22RegularSHLFrölunda HC519716-112
2021-22RegularChampions HLFrölunda HC1113450
2021-22RegularWJC-20Sweden U207134229
2021-22PlayoffsSHLFrölunda HC9123-10
2022-23RegularSHLRögle BK17101-62
2022-23RegularChampions HLRögle BK600024
2022-23RegularHockeyAllsvenskanMoDo Hockey3171118631
2022-23PlayoffsHockeyAllsvenskanMoDo Hockey17481244
2023-24RegularSHLMoDo Hockey476713-1531
2024-25RegularSHLMoDo Hockey5110233358
2024-25PlayoffsSHLMoDo Hockey6011-44
2025-26RegularSHLFrölunda HC521319321016
2025-26RegularChampions HLFrölunda HC1102200
2025-26PlayoffsSHLFrölunda HC6112-32