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Colorado Avalanche
DannyNelson
CAge: 21191 CM92 KGUSA USA
68PNHLe
Danny Nelson
NHLNHL Draft2023, NYI (49th overall)2nd round, 17th pick
THLTHL Draft2023, ANA (59th overall)2nd round, 27th pick

Projected potential

Bio

Nelson is a big centerman who can be a strong net-front presence but is limited in NHL projection, likely topping out as a fourth-line center.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 68 · 1st Line Potential2025-26 · NCAA · Univ. of Notre Dame

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
7.0
70% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
5.0
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Nelson chose to return to Notre Dame for his senior season rather than turn pro – a decision driven in large part by the opportunity to play alongside both brothers for the first time, with his younger brother enrolling as a freshman this fall. The Islanders were interested in bringing him to Bridgeport, but his rights don’t expire until August and there is no urgency on either side. The on-ice case for patience is sound. He posted 29 points in 36 games this year as Notre Dame co-captain, leading the Big Ten in faceoffs at a 57 percent win rate – a skill that will translate directly to an NHL role. Two consecutive World Junior gold medals with Team USA have further strengthened his profile as a reliable two-way center with special teams chops and genuine faceoff dominance. The Jordan Staal comparison isn’t wrong. Not a fantasy headliner, but a valuable depth piece in formats that reward defensive contributions, and a player who should arrive pro-ready after one more college season.

After a scintillating sophomore season with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Danny Nelson has proven to be a massive steal for the New York Islanders. Selected 49th overall in the 2023 NHL draft, the 6-3, versatile two-way forward’s bread and butter was on the face-off dot this past season. Nelson led the Fighting Irish with 471 face-off wins and a .572 face-off win percentage. These impressive numbers ranked fifth nationally and first in the illustrious Big Ten conference. Furthermore, Nelson’s shot has become quite the asset. His 13 goals ranked second amongst his teammates, and he tallied 13 assists on the year, with these numbers representing a career-best 26 points in 36 games. Regarding his play style, Nelson exemplifies Carolina Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal. Most notably, being dominant on the face-off dot, possessing physicality throughout the ice, excelling on special teams, and demonstrating an undeniable hockey IQ. In a highly anticipated 2025-26 season, the Big Ten conference will get even stronger. With the additions of Gavin McKenna, Porter Martone, and Cayden Lindstrom, it will be a tall order for Nelson and the Fighting Irish. Most importantly, expect this thrill of a season to be where Danny Nelson proves he belongs in the NHL.

In the weeks leading up to the World Junior Championship, Nelson’s production for Notre Dame started to ramp up. After producing only six points in his first 12 games of the season, he turned around and produced seven points in his next six games. He now sits with eight goals and five assists for 13 points through 18 games in the NCAA this season. Additionally, he played a significant role on Team USA at the U20 World Junior Championship in what became a gold medal performance for the Americans in consecutive years for the first time. He produced four goals and two assists in seven games played at the tournament and was named one of the USA’s top players for the tournament, as chosen by the coaches. He shined as a strong two-way forward but was able to show some of his offensive upside in clutch moments during the tournament. He was strong on pucks and reliable for a highly talented Team USA. He returns to Notre Dame for the remainder of the season, where he will hopefully continue with this momentum and finish the 2024-25 season off strong.

Danny Nelson had a strong start to the season with Notre Dame in the Big Ten conference. While he has since cooled off a bit, adding only the occasional point, he still has a knack for scoring important points for the Fighting Irish. With five goals and one assist through 12 games this season, Nelson will look to find that next gear to help Notre Dame climb the college hockey rankings.

Nelson will center the fourth line for Team USA at the 2024 World Junior Classic in Gothenburg, Sweden. The 49th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft is having a solid freshman season at Notre Dame with 14 points in 18 games (three goals and 11 assists).

Nelson was selected 49th overall by the Islanders.

Nelson has been a valuable depth piece on a historically good USNTDP team, but his NHL projection – and his upside, specifically – remains a bit of a question mark. His skating, shot, playmaking, handling, pace, and motor all grade as subpar NHL projections. He lacks an elite defining tool to propel him to an NHL role, and while he is young for the class as an August birthday, he has less stylistic developmental runway than many of his peers. That said, his net-front ability has created a lot of chances and goals for the NTDP this past year, and his distribution in transition is simple but effective enough. He anticipates play quite well and flashes (rarely) lane-switching, angle changes, and decisive middle-lane attacks in transition. His role on a team as strong as the 2023 NTDP U18 class will garner him a top-100 draft pick, but his upside is likely that of a dependable but limited fourth-line center. Significant tool development could unlock third-line upside.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2019-20RegularMNHP-14B14 - District 33101
2019-20RegularMNBEL 14UMN Bruins 15U AAA10123
2020-21RegularMNBEL 14UMN Penguins 15U AAA158614
2021-22RegularMNHPB16 - Section 53000
2021-22RegularMNHPB16 - Red (Final 54)3011
2021-22RegularUSA-S16Team Kelly52026
2021-22RegularUMHSEHLTeam Twin Cities Orthopedics2012112314
2021-22RegularNTDPU.S. National U17 Team11741112
2021-22RegularUSHS-MNMaple Grove High3116244025
2021-22RegularUSHLUSNTDP Juniors642664
2021-22RegularUSHLGreen Bay Gamblers510114
2021-22PlayoffsUMHSEHLTeam Twin Cities Orthopedics31232
2022-23RegularNTDPU.S. National U18 Team622126472452
2022-23RegularUSHLUSNTDP Juniors2389171040
2022-23RegularWJC-18USA U18743740
2023-24RegularNCAAUniv. of Notre Dame3091423532
2023-24RegularWJC-20USA U20711240
2024-25RegularNCAAUniv. of Notre Dame36131326-435
2024-25RegularWJC-20USA U20742610
2025-26RegularNCAAUniv. of Notre Dame36131629-1632