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Buffalo Sabres
TynanLawrence
CAge: 18185 CM84 KGCAN CAN
68PNHLe
Tynan Lawrence
NHLNHL Draft2026, STL (11th overall)1st round, 11th pick
THLTHL Draft2026, BUF (11th overall)1st round, 11th pick

Projected potential

Bio

A skilled, relentless centre who can do it all.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 68 · 1st Line Potential2025-26 · USHL NCAA · Muskegon Lumberjacks Boston Univ.

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
9.0
90% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
8.5
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

A year that began with Lawrence in the first-overall conversation ended with St. Louis taking him 11th, the cost of a midseason jump from the USHL to Boston University that flattened his offense. He had 17 points in 13 USHL games with Muskegon, then managed two goals and five assists in 18 games after the move to BU, on a Terriers team that missed the NCAA Tournament. The box score undersells him.

While Lawrence didn’t have the most productive Hlinka, the tournament did confirm in other areas his utility and value across the board. Lawrence’s all-around play showed many of the same qualities that earned him playoff MVP honors as a USHL rookie.

Lawrence is an elite, effortless skater who lives in transition, breaking up odd-man rushes one shift and igniting them the next, covering all 200 feet with constant off-puck positioning. He is a detailed two-way center with real vision and a relentless motor, reliable at five-on-five and on both special teams. The hands are the question: he is not a natural dangler and leans on smart reads and clever passes rather than beating defenders one-on-one. Byron Bader’s model comped him to Matt Boldy, who also went 12th, and his fantasy value will track his playmaking and transition scoring once he settles in at BU as a sophomore. June 2026 – Lawrence was selected at #11 overall to the Blues. The team continues to load up at every position. Pat Quinn

Preliminary Rankings-Tynan Lawrence is the next in line of a US Region that looks scarier by the day. The first thing that jumps out about Lawrence is definitely his smooth, effortless skating. He’s constantly in motion, covering ice in both ends with excellent off-puck movement and positioning. Lawrence also uses his speed as a dual threat, tracking back and killing odd man rushes defensively, while also jumping into the rush offensively.

This speed makes Lawrence a transition demon: he was a zone entry and exit machine for Muskegon last year, moving the puck through the neutral zone with pace and efficiency. He avoids forcing plays and instead opts for controlled, reliable decisions, though I would like to see him experiment more and be more daring in attacking defenders 1-on-1. He’s admittedly not the most dynamic puckhandler. Instead, he relies on intelligent reads, recognizing when to attack open space and executing clever passes under pressure, using an array of soft chips, aerial feeds, and smart banks off the boards. He also owns a compact, accurate shot that he can fit through traffic.

Defensively, Lawrence shows high-end instincts, particularly with timely stick checks that lead to rushes the other way. I would like to see more urgency and commitment however; he can appear passive at times defensively, especially on the penalty kill, and could be more consistently competitive in board battles. Overall, Lawrence’s total package of speed, hockey sense, and north-south transition ability makes him one of the premier potential playdrivers in this draft class.-

Lawrence is at his best when he’s right up in your grill. Whether he’s putting defenders on their heels with his puck carrying, or harassing the opponents on the forecheck, Lawrence doesn’t give you any space to breathe.

Lawrence will be returning to the USHL to captain Muskegon this season.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2017-18RegularBrick InvitationalBoston Jr. Bruins60220
2020-21RegularNBU15AAAHLFredericton Blues U15 AAA1740410
2020-21PlayoffsNBU15AAAHLFredericton Blues U15 AAA30000
2021-22RegularNBU15AAAHLFredericton Blues U15 AAA272734618
2022-23Regular14U AAAShattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA563756934
2022-23RegularNAPHL 14UShattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA34260
2022-23RegularJohn Reid MemorialShattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA647112
2022-23RegularWSI U15Pro Hockey Selects U1573360
2022-23RegularUS 14U NationalsShattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA43690
2023-24Regular16U AAAShattuck St. Mary's 16U AAA502227494
2023-24RegularYOGCanada U16422422
2023-24RegularUS 16U NationalsShattuck St. Mary's 16U AAA43030
2024-25RegularUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks562529542349
2024-25PlayoffsUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks1481018112
2025-26RegularNCAABoston Univ.18257-12
2025-26RegularHlinka Gretzky CupCanada U18512326
2025-26RegularUSHLMuskegon Lumberjacks131071756