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Washington Capitals
MikhailGulyayev
DAge: 21178 CM78 KGRUS RUS
11PNHLe
Mikhail Gulyayev
NHLNHL Draft2023, COL (31st overall)1st round, 31st pick
THLTHL Draft2023, WAS (31st overall)1st round, 31st pick

Projected potential

Bio

Undersized but dynamic puck moving defenseman who defends well despite his physical limitations. Could grow into a serviceable top-four defender but needs a tryout on special teams.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 112025-26 · KHL · Avangard Omsk

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
7.5
75% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
5.5
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Despite seeing a major dip in ice time and still seeing very limited special-team usage, 21-year-old Gulyayev has signed a two-year extension in the KHL. Luckily his aTOI of just 11 minutes jumped up to 15 in the playoffs, and as a result he managed 5 points in 17 postseason games after just 3 in 54 regular season outings. He seems to be sticking to his guns about only coming to North America for the NHL, and he’s not NHL-ready yet, so we continue to wait.

Gulyayev is back to playing defence in the KHL, but his aTOI has dropped nearly 5 minutes per game without much of an explanation. His production is down as one would expect and his secondary PP and PK usage has disappeared. Avangard currently sits first in their division and there are some high-scoring options ahead of him on the blueline, meaning its unlikely (barring multiple injuries) that his situation changes much in the short-term. A trade would help his fantasy value, but this also might open him up to coming to North America sooner than he previously preferred which could be a net-gain in the long term (if he can secure a role of course).

The KHL season has started with a twist – Gulyayev has been played as both a defenceman and a forward. Its a small sample size so far and his TOI hasn’t been significantly affected, but it will be interesting to follow how the KHL coaching staff (which includes former NHL coach Guy Boucher) use him and for how long, given that he was supposedly hoping to transition to North America soon.

Now one year from his KHL contract expiring, Gulyayev has suggested that when he does travel to North America, he wants to join the NHL squad right away and skip the AHL. This is easier said than done, and if true, he will need to log more ice time in his 2025-26 campaign to prove he’s ready. He has become more trusted every year and his skating is certainly ready, but his aTOI is still in the mid-teens and he isn’t a significant contributor to the PK or PP. He’s still a better real-life defenseman than fantasy defenseman, his peripherals are ok but it will be interesting to see which pick up if he sees more action.

Gulyayev has signed an extension to remain in the KHL until 2026. This puts a notable delay on any potential fantasy returns, but the young blueliner is seeing real time in the Russian league despite his age which is a good sign for his opportunity to develop.

Gulyayev has been selected 31st overall by the Colorado Avalanche in the 2023 NHL Draft.

Gulyayev had a very busy season playing several games across three different leagues while playing in some international tournaments as well. Truth be told, I think he could have benefited from consistent time in one or two leagues as it felt like much of his season was getting acclimated to new teammates and situations. Still, Gulyayev showcased his offensive skill with 25 points in 22 MHL games. Gulyayev is a small but speedy defenseman who likes to activate and transitions the puck well. He’s not afraid to attempt difficult passes if it means it’s an opportunity to set up a scoring chance. There are some instances where he can be a bit too dialed in on the path when carrying the puck and not see better opportunities to distribute the puck, but he’s still a good distributor. Gulyayev has excellent 4-way mobility and uses this to defend the rush effectively. A big concern remains his size and in-zone defensive positioning and awareness. This area of his game needs a lot of work and will likely be the difference between being a capable top 4 defenseman vs. a fringe NHL/very good KHL player.

Gulyayev enjoyed an excellent 2021-22 season where he experienced success at both the domestic and international stages. The season started with a Hlinka Gretzky Cup gold medal performance where Gulyayev tallied five points in five games for the Russian squad. In the Russian junior league, the MHL, he became the most productive 16-year-old in league history, notching 35 points in 54 games with Omskie Yastreby. Heading into his draft season, expect Gulyayev to see leading minutes in the MHL with some opportunity to play games in the second-tier Russian professional league, the VHL.

Watching Gulyayev, it’s easy to see why he had a record-breaking age 16 season. The first thing that sticks out is vision. Starting the breakout for his team, Gulyayev reads the opposing team like a football quarterback scanning the field. He looks for the most explosive play first, a long stretch pass to a forward. If it’s there, he has the ability and willingness to make the pass. If the big play is not there, he’ll reel it in and attempt a pass in the medium or short range, in that order, which illustrates the “touchdown to checkdown” mentality he possesses. His transition game is strong not only due to his vision and ability to read the defense but because his passes are very accurate with appropriate pace. In the offensive end, Gulyayev maneuvers around the ice with great mobility, picking appropriate opportunities to drive to the net for either a shot or to open up a lane to hit a winger on the opposite side with a cross-ice pass. He possesses a solid shot but will make his money from his playmaking and puck distribution. On the powerplay, it’s clear that the play runs through him. He is dangerous because he can manipulate the penalty killers to open up space that he can exploit. He has the desire to make the difficult play if it results in a dangerous opportunity for his team.

Gulyayev is a very good skater who blends above-average straight-line speed with excellent quickness and mobility. He has oily hips which allow him to change direction with fluidity and no wasted motion. His quickness in all four directions is an asset in the defensive end as he’s able to close potential passing lanes, race to loose pucks, and run a player out of their path to the net. His size is a bit concerning as he will never be a player who physically imposes himself on opponents, and he won’t be able to rely on his reach to bat pucks away as often as a larger player could. Still, he does have adequate stick usage, all things considered. What he loses in size, he partially recovers with a good motor and quick feet. He is unlikely to be a defensive stalwart in the NHL but could be serviceable if he can add strength and weight in his post-draft development years while maintaining his mobility and compete level. Gulyayev is a very good prospect who could outgrow the MHL as soon as the middle of the 2022-23 season, given the progress already made in his D-1 season.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2019-20RegularRussia U16Sibir Novosibirsk U167951412
2019-20RegularRussia U16Avangard Omsk U1620518233316
2019-20RegularYOGRussia U16401132
2020-21RegularRussia U16Avangard Omsk U164101-216
2020-21RegularRussia U17Avangard Omsk U1724529344548
2020-21RegularRussia U18Yastreby Omsk U18603342
2021-22RegularHlinka Gretzky CupRussia U18523570
2021-22RegularMHLOmskie Yastreby54728351924
2021-22PlayoffsMHLOmskie Yastreby1305564
2022-23RegularMHLOmskie Yastreby22223251218
2022-23RegularVHLOmskie Krylia1204474
2022-23RegularKHLAvangard Omsk13011-46
2022-23RegularRussia U18Yastreby Omsk U18220202
2022-23PlayoffsMHLOmskie Yastreby17281052
2023-24RegularKHLAvangard Omsk64481238
2023-24PlayoffsKHLAvangard Omsk12213-22
2024-25RegularKHLAvangard Omsk67781518
2024-25PlayoffsKHLAvangard Omsk13123-12
2024-25PlayoffsMHLOmskie Yastreby403332
2025-26RegularKHLAvangard Omsk54123314
2025-26PlayoffsKHLAvangard Omsk1714532