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Columbus Blue Jackets
GavinMcKenna
LWAge: 18180 CM77 KGCAN CAN
123PNHLe
Gavin McKenna
NHLNHL Draft2026, TOR (1st overall)1st round, 1st pick
THLTHL Draft2026, CLB (1st overall)1st round, 1st pick

Projected potential

Bio

An effortless scorer who will continue to use his elite brain to out-think team defenses and his elite shot to terrorize goalies.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 123 · Superstar Potential2025-26 · NCAA · Penn State Univ.

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
9.5
95% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
9.8
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

McKenna was selected first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs. He should step right in to the NHL and, almost certainly, into a 1PP role as well.

McKenna endured a slow start to his first season at Penn State, but the projected first overall selection at the 2026 NHL Draft finished the 2025-26 campaign on a strong run with 19 points in his final 10 games, including an eight-point effort against Ohio State in February. The Whitehorse, Yukon-native proved he has the tools necessary to become a primetime player in the NHL after a 15-goal, 51-point season against older competition in the NCAA. McKenna will have one more chance to impress decision makers at the 2026 NHL Combine before he hears his named called from the stage on June 26.

Rumblings no more, potential first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, Gavin McKenna has committed to Penn State University for the 2025-26 season. A massive loss for the Canadian Hockey League, but McKenna had very little, if anything, left to prove in the Western Hockey League after his terrific 2024-25 campaign. With McKenna himself confirming this news on July 8, 2025, on ESPN, everyone wanting to catch a glimpse of the next NHL superstar will have to tune in to the NCAA Big Ten Conference’s Penn State Nittany Lions this season. McKenna joins Calgary Flames prospect Luke Misa (2024 5th round, 150th overall) and Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Jackson Smith (2025 1st round, 14th overall), who also committed to Penn State for the 2025-26 season on a Nittany Lions team who will be aiming to build off their semi-final loss in the 2025 Frozen Four.

While we’ve heard his name for a while, 2024-25 cemented McKenna as THE talent of the 2026 class. While his hard skills (namely his shot and his hands) are the envy of most, it is his elite intelligence that allows him to dominate defenses.

Preliminary Ranking-This time last year, another prodigious centre, known to the hockey world since their tweens, was locked-in at first-overall and primed to make his mark on the college circuit. While James Hagens went on to play through a bumpy season, (ultimately landing at 7th) we’re not likely to have a repeat in 2026: Gavin McKenna just isn’t the same player.

The two don’t come without similarities, however. McKenna is also a slight, average sized, left-handed centre, and born is on the older side of the class. But, he also possesses almost every offensive tool under the sun. He’s not a burner, but McKenna is agile, shifty, and can accelerate quickly from a standstill. His deceptive handling ability—especially coupled with his pre-cognizant read of the game—makes him a slippery mark in all three zones. This is particularly true off the wall, high in the OZ, or off the rush, where his skill and gravity pull in defenders.

There are a number of areas however where McKenna sets himself apart. Unlike Hagens, McKenna’s shooting ability has looked high-end through his two full WHL seasons. McKenna is excellent at settling bouncing pucks and can convert on snap-shots, curl-and-drags and one-timers all with regularity, often in motion. McKenna also projects better defensively, with strong stick habits and the ability to manipulate puck carriers.

Really though, the biggest separator is McKenna’s approach with the puck. For better or worse, McKenna has a huge risk threshold and loves to hang onto the puck. His skill and creativity are perhaps unmatched (finishing plays I’ve never seen someone even attempt before) but it also leads to him getting caught, sometimes in grimace-inducing ways.

How McKenna’s season pans out, leading the charge for a newly-minted NCAA powerhouse, will likely depend on how those latter few qualities translate. McKenna has the potential to bring a level of creativity and scoring never seen from a college freshman.

Though his Medicine Hat Tiger came short of a Memorial Cup, it’s hard to find any fault with McKenna, who led the tournament in points-per-game and had the Tigers’ lone goal in the 3-1 finals loss. This follows up an absurd WHL playoff run (9 goals and 38 points for a playoff-leading 2.375 points-per-game) and an equally ridiculous regular season (41-88-129 in 56 games). All year, he’s been a true leader for his team, their No.1 offensive catalyst, and their most relied-upon big-game player.

Wherever he plays next season (there have been some NCAA-related rumblings), he’s going to be so d*mn good.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2018-19RegularWSI U12Pro Hockey Hutson Selects U1285712
2019-20RegularBC Zone U15Yukon Zone U15 AA2022173916
2021-22RegularCSSHL U18RINK HA Kelowna U18 Prep3523426518
2021-22RegularWSI U15Pro Hockey Selects U159101222
2021-22PlayoffsCSSHL U18RINK HA Kelowna U18 Prep323510
2022-23RegularWHLMedicine Hat Tigers164141870
2022-23PlayoffsWHLMedicine Hat Tigers4101-20
2023-24RegularWHLMedicine Hat Tigers61346397-421
2023-24PlayoffsWHLMedicine Hat Tigers524632
2024-25RegularWHLMedicine Hat Tigers5641881296019
2024-25PlayoffsWHLMedicine Hat Tigers1692938146
2025-26RegularNCAAPenn State Univ.35153651-736
2025-26RegularWJC-20Canada U20741014714
2025-26RegularInternational-JrCanada U2010220