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Toronto Maple Leafs
JustinCarbonneau
RWÂge: 19185 CM92 KGCAN CAN
75PNHLe
Justin Carbonneau
NHLRepêchage NHL2025, STL (19th overall)1st round, 19th pick
THLRepêchage THL2025, BUF (18th overall)1st round, 18th pick

Potentiel projeté

Bio

High-octane forward with dynamic skill and a lethal shot

PNHLe

Potentiel projeté: 75 · Potentiel 1re ligne2025-26 · QMJHL · Blainville-Boisbriand Armada

Qu’est-ce que le PNHLe?

Le PNHLe est une statistique offensive utilisée pour projeter le potentiel de points d’un joueur au niveau NHL. Il vise à standardiser plusieurs ligues afin de pouvoir comparer des espoirs d’une ligue à l’autre.

Le PNHLe tente d’égaliser les ligues, l’âge et les positions pour que le potentiel offensif d’un espoir puisse être facilement comparé aux autres, tout en projetant le potentiel de points NHL dans les années de pointe d’un joueur.

Le problème avec le NHLe

Le principe du NHLe est certainement une bonne idée. Si un joueur passe directement d’une ligue à la NHL, des valeurs historiques devraient indiquer combien de points ce joueur projetterait sur une saison NHL complète. Cependant, le NHLe ne tient pas compte du fait que les joueurs plus jeunes dans la même ligue sont toujours fortement désavantagés par rapport à ceux qui ont plus d’expérience et sont physiquement plus matures. Le NHLe ne regarde que le présent pour prédire l’équivalence de points d’une ligue au niveau NHL.

Certitude NHL
6.5
65% probabilité
Probabilité de devenir un joueur NHL à temps plein (10,0 = 100 %). La grille du repêchage est un point de départ.
Potentiel
9.0
 
Potentiel offensif maximal (saison de pointe). Attaquants : 8,0 ≈ 80 points. Les échelles diffèrent pour les défenseurs et gardiens.

Fil de dépistage

Carbonneau took a massive step from 2023-24 to 2024-25 to cement himself as a first-round talent. He is one of the most skilled forwards in this class and showcased that in the 46-goal, 89-point campaign for Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He plays with a lot of pace and the skill to back up his intensity. His hands are crafty, and he combines excellent vision with being a dangerous scoring threat with the puck on his stick. Defenders cannot consistently predict Carbonneau’s next move. He also plays an underrated physical game. He is not afraid of body contact and, while not necessarily a bruiser, he will retrieve and protect pucks at any cost. Carbonneau signed his three-year entry-level contract on September 10, 2025 and should slot nicely into the Blues’ forward prospect pool and be a real difference maker.

Selected at nineteenth overall, Justin Carbonneau is now a member of the St Louis Blues.

Early this draft season, Carbonneau was typically slotted in the early teens, but has stagnated a bit as of late. The 6-1 winger from the QMJHL has some electrifying moments 1-on-1, revealing a high offensive ceiling. He drives play in transition with great underlying metrics and has emerged as one of his league’s most lethal shooters and prolific goal scorers. Carbonneau is gritty and determined to make an impact on both ends of the ice. However, his hockey IQ and top end speed have raised concerns for his floor. At the NHL level, he projects as a middle 6 scoring winger.

Final Rankings – Justin Carbonneau was one of the more exciting players to watch, combining some of the best hands in the draft with goal scoring and physicality. He has a great frame and had the ability to take over games this year. Carbonneau will need maturation in his approach, find a role, and playing more completely.



Stats de carrière
SaisonTypeLigueÉquipeGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2018-19RegularQC Int PWPointe-Lévy Corsaires20000
2019-20RegularQBAAAPointe-Lévy Corsaires Bantam AAA22941310
2021-22RegularQM18AAALévis Chevaliers40832402132
2021-22PlayoffsQM18AAALévis Chevaliers1432504
2022-23RegularQM18AAALévis Chevaliers23151429438
2022-23RegularWHC-17Canada White U1760112
2022-23RegularQMJHLRouyn-Noranda Huskies202210
2022-23RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada3051318-1610
2022-23PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada4022-22
2023-24RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada68312859-132
2023-24PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada7336-36
2024-25RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada62464389361
2024-25RegularProspects ChallengeTeam CHL202222
2024-25PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada5303012
2025-26RegularQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada605129803164
2025-26PlayoffsQMJHLBlainville-Boisbriand Armada1791120914
2025-26PlayoffsAHLSpringfield Thunderbirds300002