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Washington Capitals
Lucas VanVliet
CAge: 20188 CM79 KGUSA USA
72PNHLe
Lucas Van Vliet
NHLNHL Draft2024, VGK (197th overall)7th round, 4th pick
THLTHL Draft2024, WAS (199th overall)7th round, 7th pick

Projected potential

Bio

Shoot-first scoring winger off a program-record freshman year at St. Thomas. Middle-six fantasy upside if the playmaking catches up.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 72 · 1st Line Potential2025-26 · NCAA · Univ. of St. Thomas

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
4.5
45% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
5.5
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Van Vliet had the best freshman season in St. Thomas Division I history. He closed the year scoring 14 goals and recording 35 points. At one point, his 29 points sat second in the nation among all freshmen. He earned CCHA Rookie of the Week three times, a program record, and tied a program mark with four game-winning goals while logging heavy penalty-kill minutes. He is a shooter first, with quick weight shifts, outside speed, a release he can fire off the catch, and a knack for getting open as short-side support inside the slot. He also plays a 200-foot game and forechecks with weight, which is why he was trusted shorthanded as a first-year. The fantasy projection is a middle-six scoring winger if the development keeps trending, with the offense already ahead of where most seventh-round picks sit at this age. The next gains are in playmaking and in handling tougher matchups as opponents key on his line. A sophomore year at St. Thomas with another step in points-per-game, ideally past 1.2, would put him firmly on the radar as more than a depth flier.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2015-16RegularBrick InvitationalDetroit Red Wings61122
2017-18RegularWSI U12Midwest Selects U127000
2018-19RegularQC Int PWDetroit Honeybaked20000
2020-21RegularWYC U15Detroit Jr Wings U1562132
2022-23RegularNTDPU.S. National U17 Team5712223445
2022-23RegularUSHLUSNTDP Juniors3651419-337
2022-23RegularWHC-17USA U1773142
2022-23PlayoffsUSHLUSNTDP Juniors302230
2023-24RegularNTDPU.S. National U18 Team5113922714
2023-24RegularUSHLUSNTDP Juniors19448-26
2023-24RegularWJC-18USA U18700024
2024-25RegularUSHLDubuque Fighting Saints56222749152
2024-25RegularWJAC-19USA U19537102
2024-25PlayoffsUSHLDubuque Fighting Saints7461012
2025-26RegularNCAAUniv. of St. Thomas37142135121