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Detroit Red Wings
Noah DowerNilsson
LWAge: 21183 CM79 KGSWE SWE
40PNHLe
Noah Dower Nilsson
NHLNHL Draft2023, DET (73rd overall)3rd round, 9th pick
THLTHL Draft2023, DET (64th overall)2nd round, 32nd pick

Projected potential

Bio

A finesse offensive player with a solid defensive foundation. He needs extra development time to improve his skills and become anything more than a career SHL player.

PNHLe

Projected potential: 40 · 2nd Line Potential2025-26 · SHL · Frolunda HC

What is PNHLe?

PNHLe is an offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another.

PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player.

The problem with NHLe

The premise of the NHLe stat is certainly a great idea. If a player jumps directly from one league to the NHL there should be some precedent set by historical values that would indicate how many points that player should project to having in a full NHL season. However, it always bothered me that NHLe never took into account that younger players in the same league would always have a massive disadvantage compared to those that have more experience and are physically more mature in the same league. NHLe only looks at the present to predict how many points in one league are equated at the NHL level.

NHL Certainty
4.5
45% odds
Odds of becoming a full-time NHL player (10.0 = 100%). Draft guideline is a starting point and should rise as the prospect proves himself.
Upside
3.5
 
Best-case offensive upside (peak season points potential). Forwards: 8.0 ≈ 80 points. Defense and goalie scales differ.

Scouting Feed

Dower Nilsson signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Detroit Red Wings in April 2026. His deal carries an average annual value (AAV) of $990K and runs through the 2028-29 season. Dower Nilsson scored six goals and totaled 16 points for Frolunda HC (SHL) last season, while adding four points in six postseason contests. The 21-year-old forward is expected to spend time with Grand Rapids (AHL) next fall as he transitions to professional hockey in North America.

Dower Nilsson looked to establish himself in the SHL in 2024 after he missed almost his entire D+1 season due to multiple shoulder injuries that required surgery. The results? He has a lot of catching up to do. He appeared in 35 games for Frolunda for his first full season in the SHL, tallying four goals, six assists for 10 pints and barely getting any usage during the playoffs. Season-ending injuries during critical development time in a prospect’s career typically does not bode well for their long-term outlook. That being said, Dower Nilsson has two more years in Sweden before the Red Wings need to make a decision on signing him. If he can find his game, develop his skating, quick processing, and stay in the lineup consistently, he might have a shot of transitioning over to North America in 2027 to keep his NHL dreams alive. Otherwise, he might be destined as a career SHLer.

The 2023 third round pick appeared in 37 games for Frolunda’s junior team this past season, registering 26 goals and 28 assists. He then shined at the World Junior Championships with two goals and four assists in seven games for the Tre Kronor. The 18-year-old center joins his brother Liam, who was also drafted by the Wings as a fifth round pick in 2021. During the 2022-23 campaign, the younger of the Dower Nilsson brothers got his first taste of playing against men. He saw three games of action with Frolunda in the SHL and made his debut skating alongside his older brother. Dower Nilsson is known as an offensive playmaker who can drive play in the neutral zone, but who also is not afraid to shoot the puck when the opportunity rises. He is strong on the forecheck and possesses the 200-foot game that Detroit looks for. While at development camp, the 73rd overall pick admitted to have some shoulder issues this past season and recently underwent surgery, putting him on the shelf for two months. While he will miss the World Junior Summer Showcase, he is expected to suit up for Frolunda once again this upcoming season, where his game will continue to evolve. The Red Wings organization may have found themselves another steal in the third round. He is one to keep an eye on for 2023-24 season.

Dower Nilsson was selected 73rd overall by the Red Wings.

With a comfortable lead in points among draft eligibles in the J20 Nationell, it’s safe to say that Dower Nilsson’s season has been a success. You’ll regularly find Dower Nilsson receiving a pass in the upper inside corner of the left faceoff circle and quickly firing a shot or pass off. Additionally, he can beat goalies from short-range or clean-up net front if needed. Overall, Dower Nilsson plays an aggressive, offensive-minded game, which also includes his strength on the forecheck. An area for improvement in Dower Nilsson’s game is his skating. Though he has proven some agility and average skating, his offensive toolkit would improve further with quicker, stronger skating. His play in the J20 this season makes it evident that Dower Nilsson deserves an opportunity at the next level. In recent years, Frölunda has proved to be a challenging team to earn time in as a draft-eligible, so chances professionally may require a loan at some point.



Career Stats
SeasonTypeLeagueTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGSOG
2018-19RegularU16 Div.2Frölunda HC U16 3495144
2018-19RegularU16 Div.1Frölunda HC U16 271672
2018-19RegularU16 ElitFrölunda HC U1610110
2018-19PlayoffsU16 Div.1Frölunda HC U16 231010
2019-20RegularTV-PuckenGöteborg51010
2019-20RegularU16 ElitFrölunda HC U16211411258
2019-20RegularU16 SMFrölunda HC U1620000
2019-20PlayoffsU16 ElitFrölunda HC U1633476
2020-21RegularU16 RegionFrölunda HC U166712198
2020-21RegularTV-PuckenGöteborg32350
2020-21RegularJ18 RegionFrölunda HC U183000-12
2021-22RegularJ18 RegionFrölunda HC U1810391242
2021-22RegularJ20 NationellFrölunda HC U201222402
2021-22RegularJ18 NationellFrölunda HC U187781596
2021-22PlayoffsJ18 NationellFrölunda HC J18433692
2021-22PlayoffsJ18 NationellFrölunda HC U18433692
2022-23RegularJ20 NationellFrölunda HC U20372628542910
2022-23RegularHlinka Gretzky CupSweden U1851342
2022-23RegularJ18 RegionFrölunda HC U1845712924
2022-23RegularWJAC-19Sweden U1820000
2022-23RegularSHLFrölunda HC3000-10
2022-23RegularJ18 NationellFrölunda HC U18333634
2022-23RegularWJC-18Sweden U18724626
2022-23PlayoffsJ20 NationellFrölunda HC J202022-10
2022-23PlayoffsJ20 NationellFrölunda HC U202022-10
2022-23PlayoffsJ18 NationellFrölunda HC J185156-120
2022-23PlayoffsJ18 NationellFrölunda HC U185156-120
2023-24RegularJ20 NationellFrölunda HC U203314-32
2023-24RegularSHLFrölunda HC511210
2023-24RegularSpengler CupFrölunda HC410110
2023-24RegularHockeyAllsvenskanIF Björklöven100000
2024-25RegularSHLFrölunda HC354610-110
2024-25PlayoffsSHLFrölunda HC7000-22
2024-25PlayoffsJ20 NationellFrölunda HC U20101100
2025-26RegularSHLFrölunda HC4861016710
2025-26RegularChampions HLFrölunda HC1202222
2025-26PlayoffsSHLFrölunda HC622402